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Modeling & Forecasting
Key Components of Forecasting
The ultimate utility in any forecasting method lies in its ability to determine:
Available tools for forecasting benefits range from best professional judgment and simple index models to complex dynamic models that generate outputs for multiple ecosystem attributes. Forecasting the likely effects of a project and calculating ecosystem benefits often require the use of multiple, interlinked models. In most cases, a hydrologic model will be used to forecast the physical outputs of a project, and output from this model will serve as input to one or more additional models used to forecast ecological metrics or indicators.
Regardless of the models used to forecast ecosystem metrics, the EBA will usually require a separate model to synthesize forecast metrics into an overall calculation of benefits. EBA models are generally simple compared with the models used to predict the physical and ecological effects of the project. The accuracy and corresponding levels of uncertainty of a benefits forecast depend not only on the EBA model but on the choice and application of the underlying models used to forecast project effects and ecosystem metrics.
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Updated: September 2022