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  • EBA Framework
  • Conceptual Models
  • Objectives and Metrics
  • Modeling & Forecasting
  • Types of Models
  • Use of Existing Models
  • Model Adaption
  • Model Development
  • Certification of Planning Models
  • Decision Making
  • Uncertainty & Risk Management
  • Adaptive Management

    Use of Existing Models

      A large number of models exist for use in ecological forecasting. Using an existing model has many advantages, such as the need for fewer resources (time, funding) and potentially greater familiarity and comfort with the model. Additionally, existing models are more likely to have been subjected to critical peer review. Further, the current project can benefit from knowledge gained from prior applications, the intrinsic credibility of using a familiar tool, and comparability of the analysis with other restoration projects. However, most projects will require some augmentation or adaptation of existing models and/or the construction of a new one.

      Key questions to consider when selecting a forecasting model:

      • Can the model forecast the metrics needed to evaluate the project?
      • Is the spatial scale of the model appropriate?
      • Is the temporal coverage of the model adequate for the project’s period of analysis?
      • Is the model technically valid?
      • Is the model acceptable to the stakeholders, resource agencies and potential critics?
      • Are needed technical resources available to run and interpret model output?
      • Are the needed data to run the model available, or can they be obtained with available funding, personnel, and time resources?
      • Can the uncertainty of the forecast be quantified?
      • Are other, better models available or can a better model be developed and applied within the needed timeframe given available resources?

      In the table below are eight criteria to evaluate in selecting or developing ecological models for EBA.


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